segunda-feira, 7 de novembro de 2011

The Influence of Late Quaternary Climate-Change Velocity on Species Endemism

B. Sandel,1,2* L. Arge,2 B. Dalsgaard,3 R. G. Davies,4 K. J. Gaston,5 W. J. Sutherland,3 J.-C. Svenning1

1. Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity Group, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus 8000 C, Denmark.
2. Center for Massive Data Algorithmics (MADALGO), Department of Computer Science, Aarhus University, Aarhus 8000 C, Denmark.
3. Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK. 
4. School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.
5. Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Cornwall TR10 9EZ, UK.

The effects of climate change on biodiversity should depend in part on climate displacement rate (climate-change velocity) and its interaction with species’ capacity to migrate. We estimated Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate-change velocity by integrating macroclimatic shifts since the Last Glacial Maximum with topoclimatic gradients. Globally, areas with high velocities were associated with marked absences of small-ranged amphibians, mammals, and birds. The association between endemism and velocity was weakest in the highly vagile birds and strongest in the weakly dispersing amphibians, linking dispersal ability to extinction risk due to climate change. High velocity was also associated with low endemism at regional scales, especially in wet and aseasonal regions. Overall, we show that low-velocity areas are essential refuges for Earth’s many small-ranged species.

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